Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year?
49
13k
2025
6%
chance

Will X/Elon achieve AGI by next year?

Reports say Elon wants 100,000 GPUs for his xAI supercomputer - it took 20,000 GPUs to train Grok 2.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-plans-xai-supercomputer-information-reports-2024-05-25/

Resolution criteria:

AGI - Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a field of theoretical AI research that attempts to create software with human-like intelligence and the ability to self-teach. The aim is for the software to be able to perform tasks that it is not necessarily trained or developed for - to be achieved by x/Elon by this time next year for this market to resolve YES.

If AGI is not achieved/confirmed by a reasonable standard - this market will resolve as No.

Updates - 04/06

"Elon Musk ordered Nvidia to ship thousands of AI chips reserved for Tesla to X and xAI"

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/elon-musk-told-nvidia-to-ship-ai-chips-reserved-for-tesla-to-x-xai.html

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Does by next year mean by Jan 1st 2025 or by Dec 31 2025 ? Also, does he need to be the first or just to achieve it ? Like if OpenAI creates AGI but then Elon Musk creates one, how does this resolve ? What if Musk’s AGI is to some extent based on something preexisting ?

@Mich I'll use the latter since Next Year could mean both and going the long way means we can always close early if results come in.

Doesn't need to be the first, as long as he releases his iteration of AGI by end of 2025. If OpenAI comes out with their implementation of AGI before, no impact on this market.

For the purposes of this market, as long as it's released by xAI/Elon and meets AGI requirements, we'll resolve yes.

Although I agree and think it's unlikely (I don't bet on my own markets) he will meet this deadline - this should be interesting:

https://x.ai/blog/series-b

xAI is pleased to announce...our Series B funding round of $6 billion with participation from key investors including Valor Equity Partners, Vy Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, Fidelity Management & Research Company, Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal and Kingdom Holding, amongst others.