Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?
17
145
370
2026
70%
chance

Robin Hanson, an economist and professor, writes the blog "Overcoming Bias," which focuses on topics like rationality, prediction markets, and futurism. As AI language models improve, they might generate blog posts resembling Robin Hanson's writing in style, depth, and insight.

Before January 1st, 2026, if at least one experimental test is conducted, will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing, as determined by the outcome of the test involving readers evaluating the post?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2026, a credible blog post or document reveals that an AI has generated one or multiple blog posts meeting the following criteria:

  1. Content: The AI-generated blog post addresses a topic similar to those covered in "Overcoming Bias," exhibiting a comparable level of depth and insight.

  2. Style: The AI-generated blog post emulates Robin Hanson's writing style, including tone, analytical thinking, and use of examples.

  3. Length: The AI-generated blog post exceeds 2000 words in length.

At least one of the following experimental tests must be conducted with a minimum of 30 readers familiar with Robin Hanson's writing participating in the test, using the aforementioned AI-generated blog posts:

Test A: Open Evaluation

  1. Readers are presented with the AI-generated blog post alongside up to four genuine posts by Robin Hanson.

  2. Readers are informed about the purpose of the test and that it includes an AI-generated post.

  3. Readers are asked to rate the likelihood that each post is written by Robin Hanson on a scale from 0 to 100, with 100 being certain that Robin Hanson wrote the post.

  4. The AI-generated post must achieve an average rating of at least 75.

Test B: Blind Evaluation

  1. Readers are presented with the AI-generated blog post alongside up to four genuine posts by Robin Hanson.

  2. Readers are informed about the purpose of the test and that it includes an AI-generated post.

  3. Readers are asked to identify which post(s) are not written by Robin Hanson.

  4. At least 60% of participating readers cannot correctly identify the AI-generated post as distinct from Robin Hanson's writing.

Test C: Turing Test Format

  1. Readers are presented with pairs of blog posts, one AI-generated and one genuine Robin Hanson post.

  2. Readers are informed about the purpose of the test and that each pair includes an AI-generated post.

  3. Readers are asked to identify which post in each pair is written by Robin Hanson.

  4. At least 60% of participating readers cannot correctly identify the AI-generated post as distinct from Robin Hanson's writing in at least 30% of the pairs.

If a credible blog post or document reveals that AI-generated blog posts meeting the content, style, and length criteria have satisfied the conditions of at least one of the experimental tests before January 1st, 2026, the question will resolve positively. If a test was conducted but the results were negative, then this question resolves negatively. If no such documentation is provided by the deadline describing the results of any qualifying experimental test, the question will resolve as N/A.

Note: The tests are independent, and only one successful test result is required for the question to resolve positively. The test results and the AI-generated blog post must be publicly documented, including the number of participants, the test procedure, and a summary of the results.

I will use my discretion while deciding whether a test was fair and well-designed. There are a number of ways of creating a well-designed test, such as Robin setting aside some draft blog posts to provide the control posts, or by asking a select hundred readers to not read the blog for a month and then come back and take part in an experiment.

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Also, blinding people against just recognising his posts?

Are you going to run the test? Seems like the odds of this experiment happening are low, but maybe I'm missing something?