The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) maintains a data series named "Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States" (IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE), which tracks the index change in seasonally-adjusted job postings within the software development industry since February 1, 2020, the period before the COVID-19 pandemic started to affect job markets.
The data series is based on job posting information from Indeed, one of the largest online employment websites in the United States. The series is seasonally adjusted to account for regular, predictable variations in job posting volume within the year, based on historical patterns from 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series is adjusted separately, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies.
Indeed implemented a new methodology in December 2022 for this calculation, applying a detrended seasonal adjustment factor to the index change in job postings. This new approach was retroactively applied to all historical data, and as a result, these historical numbers may differ significantly from those originally reported.
Please note that Indeed retains copyright over this data, and any external distribution must adhere to their usage policy. Users are required to credit Indeed as the source and owner of the data when using it.
Will the value of the "Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States" (IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE) data series from FRED be >110 on June 1, 2024?
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve based on the value of the IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE data series from FRED on June 1, 2024. The resolution date is expected to be on or around the time when this data is typically released following the end of the relevant month. If for some reason the FRED does not release the data for June 1, 2024, by July 31, 2024, the question will resolve as ambiguous.
Please note that the data series' values are subject to revisions by Indeed. If the data for June 1, 2024, is revised after the question has resolved, the original resolution will stand.
According to https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE the index peaked at ~220 in March 2022 and has been declining ever since (currently it's at 73.41). However, the decline is slowing somewhat so it's plausible the trend might reverse sometime, especially since this is approaching the last and only bottom at 63.23 reached in May/June 2020.