Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?
19
closes 2030
39%
chance

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
ScottAlexander avatarScott Alexander
38% chance
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
MatthewBarnett avatarMatthew Barnett
28% chance
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?
SG avatarS G
50% chance
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
dreev avatarDaniel Reeves
52% chance
Will I observe significant Negative Polarization around AI generated art in 2023?
LarsDoucet avatarLars Doucet
30% chance
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
Nostradamnedus avatarNostradamnedus
16% chance
In a year, will I think that risk of AI apocalypse is between 1 and 10%?
NathanpmYoung avatarNathan Young
52% chance
Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?
BionicD0LPH1N avatarBionic
81% chance
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023?
JoeBrenton avatarJoe Brenton
9% chance
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
22% chance
Will I use an x.ai product during 2023?
jacksonpolack avatarjackson polack
22% chance
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024?
PeterWildeford avatarPeter Wildeford
14% chance
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
NathanNguyen avatarNathan Nguyen
51% chance
49. Will AI win a programming competition in 2023?
ACXBot avatarACX BotBot
14% chance
Google Trends: Will "AI" search term popularity peak again in 2023?
itsTomekK avatarTomek K 🟡
46% chance
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2029?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
71% chance
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?
JacobPfau avatarJacob Pfau
25% chance
Sort by:
mariopasquato avatar
mario pasquatobought Ṁ10 of NO

Elasticities elasticities elasticities! Now if we were talking about AI burying dead people automatically, clearly an increase in undertaker productivity due to such automation would result in job destruction, because the number of dead people to bury stays roughly the same over time (barring x-risk). Demand for funerals is very inelastic to price. On the other hand coding faster and cheaper may result in more code being purchased overall, which could even lead to job creation for programmers, in principle.

MatthiasPortzel avatar
Matthias Portzelbought Ṁ10 of NO

My thought is that the number of programming jobs may go down, but the jobs that are still being done by humans will be more skilled, and so salaries will increase.

Not betting more because of long timeline and unclear resolution criteria.

1 reply
arbmaster39247 avatar
arbmaster39247predicts NO

Re: the timeline. I did create markets for 2025 and 2027 if you’d prefer to trade on those.

Re: the resolution criteria. I agree. If there is no decline in pay I will resolve NO. Otherwise it will be highly subjective and largely based on what economists attribute the decline to.