The humanoid robot is perhaps the definitive symbol of Hollywood’s exaggerated, dramatized depiction of artificial intelligence (think Ex Machina or I, Robot).

Well, humanoid robots are fast becoming a reality.

Why build robots shaped like humans? For the simple reason that we have architected much of the physical world for humans. If we plan to use robots to automate complex activities in the world—in factories, shopping malls, offices, schools—the most effective approach is often for those robots to have the same form factor as the humans that would otherwise be completing those activities. This way, robots can be deployed in diverse settings with no need for the surrounding environment to be adapted.

Tesla has catalyzed the field of humanoid robotics this year with the launch of its Optimus robot, which debuted at the company’s AI Day in September. Elon Musk has said that he believes the Optimus robot will eventually be worth more to Tesla than its entire car business. Tesla’s robot still has a long way to go before it is ready for primetime—but don’t underestimate the rapid progress that the company is capable of when it devotes its full resources to the task.

A crop of promising startups is likewise moving the field of humanoid robotics forward, including Agility Robotics, Halodi Robotics, Sanctuary AI and Collaborative Robotics.

In 2023, expect more contenders to enter the fray—both new startups and established companies (e.g., Toyota, Samsung, General Motors, Panasonic)—as the race to build humanoid robots heats up. Similar to autonomous vehicles circa 2016, waves of talent and capital will start pouring into the field next year as more people come to appreciate the scale of the market opportunity.

If you enjoyed this market, please check out the other 9! https://manifold.markets/group/forbes-2023-ai-predictions

This market is from Rob Toews' annual AI predictions at Forbes magazine. This market will resolve based on Rob's own self-assessed score for these predictions when he publishes his retrospective on them at the end of the year.

Since Rob resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside source data.

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Edit 2023-07-05: Last year Rob used "Right-ish" to grade some of his predictions. In cases of a similar "Right-ish" (or "Wrong-ish") answer this year, I will resolve to 75% PROB or 25% PROB, respectively. This will apply for similar language too ("mostly right", "partial credit", "in the right direction"). If he says something like "hard to say" or "some right, some wrong", or anything else that feels like a cop-out or 50% answer, I will just call that N/A.

Thanks to Henri Thunberg from this comment in requesting clarification!