Will Manifold limit markets to 1-99% in 2023?
59
965Ṁ43k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

To limit markets to 1-99%, the AMM would only allow bets up to these percents. Additional NO bets at 1% would be canceled or converted into a NO limit order at 1%.

Reasons:

  • At 1% most of the skill is at guessing resolution risk and RoI and this is not as fun as trying to predict the world.

  • Avoid problems with prediction market reliability at extremes.

  • Can display conspiracy theories as "<1%" instead of "0.5%", which I think is a better look (eg, "manifools say 0.6% chance moon landings faked").

  • Reduces profits available from rugpulls.

  • Reduces profits available from world manipulation to make previously unlikely events happen.

  • Slightly improves liquidity by spreading the same subsidy over a smaller range.

  • More resilient to tranche corrections.

Resolution criteria:

"Markets" in the title refers to binary (yes/no) markets, only. It does not include numeric, multiple response, free response, etc, which may have different needs.

It refers only to the AMM probability, not to limit orders.

It refers only to bets through the UI, not to the API.

The limit must be two-sided, eg a 10-100% limit does not count.

In the event of a partial implementation that effects only some markets, I may resolve to a probability between 1-99 that represents my assessment of how partial it is.

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