I've thought that something like this should exist for a while now.
https://www.paradigm.xyz/2024/12/distribution-markets
Not the same as numerical markets. At minimum, requires traders to be able to purchase on at least 3 parameters. Possible examples include skew normal distributions, or multiple distinct numerical ranges (eg. 0%-1% and 99%-100%)
Update 2024-11-12 (PST): The market requires that traders can create distributions in a single purchase, rather than by manually purchasing multiple ranges separately. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000People are also trading
(link to tweet where he talks about this)
https://x.com/_Dave__White_/status/1866497496773804434
I'm pretty sure Manifold's existing numerical markets actually do what you want, via the "multiple distinct numerical ranges" approach. e.g. I just bought $1 of 96-100 and $1 of 0-3 on https://manifold.markets/StephenMalina/how-well-will-openais-o1-not-o1prev
If this is not what you want, can you explain why Dave White's approach to distribution markets is better?
@placebo_username Ok yeah technically I suppose the current numerical markets let you create any possible distribution since you can purchase multiple ranges. Umm, let's say the distinction is you have to create them manually, whereas what I'm describing about is creating them in the same purchase.
@TonyGao So what you want is just a different UI for existing functionality? I've had a similar thought about multiple-choice markets, which is that it would be nice to be able to input my subjective probabilities and see a "suggested Kelly bet" for each option. But the idea of inputting a distribution is probably harder for most users to understand than the idea of buying a range, and it's certainly more effort to use, so I don't really see why Manifold would want to implement this vs. letting sufficiently motivated users do the math themselves.
@placebo_username Tbh I didn't know about it and it's just to salvage the question. That being said, sure, I like making it easier to do things.