This market gauges the potential long-term impact of AOH1996, on overall cancer survival rates. Unlike markets focusing on short-term results in clinical trials or regulatory approvals, this market probes the drug's real-world significance.
To quantify, a 'boost' means a minimum 35% increase in 5-year survival rates from baseline. For instance, if a cancer type has a current survival rate of 50%, AOH1996 should elevate it to over 67.5%.
Our focus is on overall survival rates across all stages of these cancers: brain, lung, cervical, ovarian. This ensures broad applicability, instead of focusing on specific stages.
The resolution occurs 10 years post-approval of AOH1996, when its impact can be robustly assessed and is unlikely to grow further or any time before that when there is a broad concensus about the level of impact.
1,000Timeline against the criterion: a 35% relative rise in five-year survival has to show up in population statistics, which means approval, wide adoption, and then five years of follow-up before the registries report it. With the 2045 close, that requires approval by roughly 2038 and uptake soon after. AOH1996 is still in Phase 1 (solid-tumour study NCT05227326 started August 2022, primary completion listed for September 2029; a second Phase 1 in AML started July 2025), with no Phase 2 registered and only six patients' safety data disclosed (April 2024), and about 5% of oncology drugs entering Phase 1 reach approval at all. Two of the four named cancers are also where single agents historically move survival least: glioblastoma five-year survival is under 10% and has barely shifted in decades. For what it is worth, dogs develop spontaneous gliomas and lung tumours and are the standard bridge from mouse xenografts to people (NCI Comparative Oncology Trials Consortium); no dog study of AOH1996 exists. Same reason aging drugs are tested for lifespan in dogs first; registry (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/
