On the 2027 bucket at 18%: as of today AOH1996 has two Phase 1 studies on ClinicalTrials.gov and no Phase 2. The solid-tumour Phase 1 (NCT05227326, started August 2022) lists primary completion in September 2029; a Phase 1 in relapsed or refractory AML (NCT06763341) started in July 2025 with 12 participants. Even an accelerated approval needs a registered trial with a response-rate readout, and nothing of the kind exists yet, so any 2026 to 2028 approval is off the table on the registry alone; "not by the end of 2030" is the only option consistent with the current pipeline unless a Phase 2 appears within months. The only clinical disclosure so far is six patients without drug-related toxicity (City of Hope, April 2024). The standard bridge from mouse xenografts to people for an oral cancer drug is dogs with spontaneous tumours (the NCI's Comparative Oncology Trials Consortium), and no dog study has been published either; same reason aging drugs are tested for lifespan in dogs first (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/

Canine aging trial registry

Registry of 37 interventional studies and cohorts on aging in dogs, each typed and backed by verbatim source quotes.

Full approval, or any approval?

@FranekZak Any approval for use in humans