Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?

This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper. See also this Wikipedia page. As of 2023-08-02, AOH1996 is in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of solid tumors.

This market resolves YES if AOH1996 gets FDA approval for use in humans at any time before 2040. This includes fast track, breakthrough therapy, accelerated approval, and priority review, as well as the normal approval pathway. It also includes any new approval pathways the FDA may develop prior to 2040. AOH1996 may be approved as a mono- or combination therapy.

I will not bet in this market.

At the time of writing, I am aware only of this other AOH1996 market. I created this market to additionally capture the long tail of less glamorous outcomes, including slow approval, approval for only small disease area, and approval as a combination therapy.

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This may be too high. Based on here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6226120/#:~:text=The%20observed%20success%20rates%20of,(NDA%2FBLA)%20phase

The cumulative probability seems closer to 18%-22%.

the deadline of 2040 creates an additional pressure for this to resolve as no.

Edit: probably not. Doesn’t seem like 15+ years is much of a restriction.

I'm excited about this compound but this seems crazy high given the phase I to approval prior (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6409418/).

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