Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?
Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?
77
3.5kṀ10k
2040
40%
chance

This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper. See also this Wikipedia page. As of 2023-08-02, AOH1996 is in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of solid tumors.

This market resolves YES if AOH1996 gets FDA approval for use in humans at any time before 2040. This includes fast track, breakthrough therapy, accelerated approval, and priority review, as well as the normal approval pathway. It also includes any new approval pathways the FDA may develop prior to 2040. AOH1996 may be approved as a mono- or combination therapy.

I will not bet in this market.

At the time of writing, I am aware only of this other AOH1996 market. I created this market to additionally capture the long tail of less glamorous outcomes, including slow approval, approval for only small disease area, and approval as a combination therapy.

Science
Medicine
Cancer
FDA
AOH1996
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?
43% chance
Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?
70% chance
💊Will INS018_055 be FDA-approved by 2030?
48% chance
Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
29% chance
Will the FDA approve Viagra as a treatment for Alzheimer's before 2030?
19% chance
Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?
73% chance
Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025?
19% chance
The FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
24% chance
Will Ozempic / semaglutide be FDA-approved for Alzheimer's before 2030?
62% chance
Will there be an FDA approved cure for Huntington's disease by EOY 2032?
42% chance


Sort by:
1y

Some doubts here: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-study-on-use-of-small-molecule-ligand-aoh1996-for-inhibiting-tumour-growth-in-animals

1y

This may be too high. Based on here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6226120/#:~:text=The%20observed%20success%20rates%20of,(NDA%2FBLA)%20phase

The cumulative probability seems closer to 18%-22%.

the deadline of 2040 creates an additional pressure for this to resolve as no.

Edit: probably not. Doesn’t seem like 15+ years is much of a restriction.

1y

I'm excited about this compound but this seems crazy high given the phase I to approval prior (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6409418/).

1y

A related market for the success of the ongoing Phase I trial.

https://manifold.markets/PanosFilianos/will-aoh1996-succeed-in-phase-i-tri

Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?
50% chance. This market concerns AOH1996, a cancer therapeutic reported in this paper. It is currently in Phase I trial. This market resolves to YES, if a Phase II trial is submitted and starts for any type of cancer.
1y

See also

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?
43% chance
Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?
70% chance
💊Will INS018_055 be FDA-approved by 2030?
48% chance
Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
29% chance
Will the FDA approve Viagra as a treatment for Alzheimer's before 2030?
19% chance
Will AOH1996 succeed in Phase I trial?
73% chance
Will an AI-designed drug get FDA approval by the end of 2025?
19% chance
The FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
24% chance
Will Ozempic / semaglutide be FDA-approved for Alzheimer's before 2030?
62% chance
Will there be an FDA approved cure for Huntington's disease by EOY 2032?
42% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy