There have been speculations that the Ukraine-Russia war could reignite older conflicts (e.g. due to Russia appearing weaker). This is specifically about Georgia vs. its separatist republics.

This market resolves YES if it is widely confirmed that at least 10km^2 of Georgian territory have newly become controlled by the central Georgian government or any of the separatist republics (Abkhazia, South Ossetia or potentially any new subject) or Russia. The market resolves NO if no such change happens before September 1st, 2026. The market may delay resolution or even resolve to PROB in the unlikely case some territory changes hands, but reasonable assesments differ on whether it is more or less than 10km^2.

"Georgian territory" refers to the internationally accepted 1991 borders. Change of territory must happen between Georgia and one of the other parties, so e.g. internal splits within the separatist republics or Russia officially anexing the republics do not count for resolution.