Will there be a second Russia-Georgia war by 2030?
closes 2030

Resolves YES if Russia annexes or occupies territory that was previously controlled by Georgia or Georgia suffers over 100 casualties due to Russian military action.


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Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?16%
Will there be a deadly military conflict between Russian and NATO armed forces in 2023?6%
Will a new war start in a post-Soviet country by 2024?30%
Will Russia annex Belarus until 2030?23%
Will Russia be a democracy in 2030?19%
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?21%
Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?58%
Will Georgia decide to go to war with Russia via referendum?11%
Will Putin die before 2030?31%
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 203023%
Will a military conflict break out between Russia and Kazakhstan in the next five years?8%
Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?6%
Will there be a direct military conflict between Poland and Russia before the end of 2023?5%
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2023?15%
Conditional on an end to the war in 2023, will Russia retain any annexed territories beyond the 2014 borders?69%
Will Russia mobilize at least 100k more soldiers before the end of 2023?77%
Will Russia attack Moldova before the end of 2023?11%
Will Russia have nuclear weapons in Belarus at the end of 2023?80%
Will Russia confront USA by the end of 2029?16%
Will Russia be classified as a "flawed democracy" by 2030?14%