Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?16%
Will there be a deadly military conflict between Russian and NATO armed forces in 2023?6%
Will a new war start in a post-Soviet country by 2024?30%
Will Russia annex Belarus until 2030?23%
Will Russia be a democracy in 2030?19%
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?21%
Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?58%
Will Georgia decide to go to war with Russia via referendum?11%
Will Putin die before 2030?31%
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 203023%
Will a military conflict break out between Russia and Kazakhstan in the next five years?8%
Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?6%
Will there be a direct military conflict between Poland and Russia before the end of 2023?5%
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2023?15%
Conditional on an end to the war in 2023, will Russia retain any annexed territories beyond the 2014 borders?69%
Will Russia mobilize at least 100k more soldiers before the end of 2023?77%
Will Russia attack Moldova before the end of 2023?11%
Will Russia have nuclear weapons in Belarus at the end of 2023?80%
Will Russia confront USA by the end of 2029?16%
Will Russia be classified as a "flawed democracy" by 2030?14%
