Will Chechenya be a sovereign state before 2040?
7
150Ṁ1642040
28%
chance
9
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Chechenya joins the UN as a sovereign state, resolves as YES
If Chechenya is self-declared sovereign and has >90% of international recognition, resolves as YES
If Chechenya is self-declared sovereign and has <90% of international recognition, resolves as the percentage of countries that recognize its independence
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
21% chance
Will Ramzan Kadyrov remain the head of the Chechen Republic (Chechnya) by the end of 2025?
52% chance
At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?
40% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
58% chance
Will Northern Cyprus be a sovereign state before 2040?
23% chance
Will Russia Exist in 2040?
94% chance
Will Russia control Grozny on Jan 1st 2033?
70% chance
Will Russia annex either Abkhazia or South Ossetia before 2030?
35% chance
Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?
24% chance
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
18% chance