45
535
1.7k
2033
70%
USA
27%
China
1%
Russia
0.7%
India
0.2%
Europe
0.6%
Other

There are many nations and organizations that have plans about going to the Moon. And some of the plans are more ambitious than realistic.

What nationality will the next human to set foot on the moon have?

This bet will be resolved the day after the event has happened.

Unsuccessful landings and scrabs does not count. The astronauts needs to survive the landing for it to count.

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What if multiple humans set foot on the moon at roughly the same time, and they are of different nationalities?

Also, title =! description. If NASA gets to the moon first but the person who actually sets foot was born in Germany, I'd say that the US won the race because it was funded by America.

Also, European is not a nationality.

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@dsh Not sure whether I agree with you or not, but it's not related to any of the original points I made, this should be its own comment.

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@dsh It's not breaking the rules at all, I just wanted to make sure the market creator replied to my first points as well as yours, because I feel they're important. No harm done.

@ShadowyZephyr Ok. two good points. Yes if NASA wins then it’s USA regardless of the nationality of the person that is stepping down first.

In the unlikely event that multiple people step down at once then it is “Other” or “Europe” if it is organized by ESA.

The winning organization, nation or sponsor will probably make it very clear how to resolve.

bought Ṁ5 of Other YES

All of the Europe probability mass is the ESA somehow shifting a seat from Artemis IV to III, I'll sell it if the requirement is that they not buy a ride from NASA. Similarly, "Other" is Saudi Arabia deciding they want to spend a few billion on a headline.

bought Ṁ75 of USA YES

Seems like I can't sell, unfortunately, registering that these two are way overbought.

@Sailfish Sorry it’s out of my control. Maybe try again later.

@Sailfish in these multi choice markets you can't sell, you have to buy the opposite

bought Ṁ10 of Russia NO

Since Chinese and Russian space explorers are not called astronauts, can this question resolve to them at all? 😉

@LivInTheLookingGlass I have just rewritten the question and changed “astronaut” with “human”.

🤣 other...

@dsh Japan, North Korea or a crazy billionaire from South Africa. You never know. 🤣

@IonMarqvardsen exactly, but I think it's disrespectful to group almost half of the world into such a pathetic generalization!

@dsh Well that’s reality today. “Others” plus Europe and India get about 2% combined. 😭

@IonMarqvardsen here>80% of users from the USA ))), so this is rather relevant to USA reality! The result might be better )))

@dsh The American bias might give you a chance for a good bet. 👍

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