When will the US return to the Moon?
When will the US return to the Moon?
19
1kṀ28552040
0.3%
2024
0.9%
2025
0.9%
2026
20%
2027
23%
2028
38%
2029
4%
2030
3%
2031
9%
When will the US/USA/America conduct a successful crewed Moon/lunar landing? Resolves to the year in which they first make such a landing, not including dates earlier than the creation of this market (so, the Apollo landings do not count). A successful mission is defined as a mission in which at least one astronaut walks upon the lunar surface.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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