Who will get the biggest seat increase in the 2025 local uk election.
5
125Ṁ178
May 2
42%
Reform
30%
Liberal Democrats
20%
Green
17%
Independent candidates
10%
Other parties

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve based on the official results of the 2025 United Kingdom local elections, scheduled for 1 May 2025. The party or group that achieves the largest net increase in council seats compared to their previous standing will be considered the winner. Official results will be sourced from the UK Electoral Commission or other authoritative bodies.

Background:

The 2025 UK local elections are set to be a significant event, with several parties aiming to increase their representation:

  • Reform UK: Led by Nigel Farage, Reform UK has been gaining momentum. A YouGov poll from February 2025 placed them at 25% support, surpassing both Labour and the Conservatives. (ft.com) Their focus on tougher immigration controls and opposition to climate goals has resonated with certain voter demographics.

  • Green Party: The Greens have been steadily increasing their local government presence. In the 2024 local elections, they became the largest party on Hastings Borough Council, gaining eight seats. (en.wikipedia.org) They aim to build on this success in 2025.

  • Liberal Democrats: The Lib Dems have seen significant gains in recent years, adding more than 750 council seats over the last five years, primarily in southern England. (theguardian.com) They are targeting further increases in the upcoming elections.

  • Independent Candidates: Independent candidates often play a crucial role in local elections, especially in areas where voters seek alternatives to mainstream parties.

  • Other Parties: Various smaller parties and local groups will also contest the elections, each aiming to increase their local influence.

Considerations:

  • Election Delays: Some local elections have been postponed due to council restructuring, affecting over 5 million voters. (ft.com) This may impact the overall seat changes for certain parties.

  • Polling Variability: While recent polls indicate rising support for parties like Reform UK, actual election outcomes can differ due to various factors, including voter turnout and local issues.

  • Local Dynamics: The performance of parties can vary significantly across different regions, influenced by local candidates, issues, and historical voting patterns.

Traders should consider these factors when making predictions about seat increases in the 2025 local elections.

Elections
Elections: World
UK
UK politics
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
reposted

Reform are probably going to see the bigest vote increase, But when it comes to seats I think the LibDems will hold the most, but the Greens will have the biggest increase.

People are also trading

In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?
Which of these parties will gain seats in the next 2025 Canadian election?
Which Conservative MP will lose their seat next?
How many seats will the UK Labour Party win at the next general election?
Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
13% chance
Resolves to % of seats for each party in the next UK election
How many seats will the UK Conservative Party win at the next general election?
Will there be a huge increase in UK housebuilding before 2030? What is the political result at the next election?
In the UK, will the tax burden on any decile increase by more than 1pp against what was expected, before the next election?
59% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules