Which of the following states will have a poll showing Trump leading in the presidential election?
๏ธ Politics๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Politics๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 2024 US Presidential ElectionTrumpJoe Biden
Basic
19
แน€4.4k
Nov 6
30%
New Mexico
22%
Illinois
20%
Colorado
20%
Connecticut
18%
Maine (statewide, after ranked choice)
14%
Maryland
13%
Hawaii
12%
Delaware
Resolved
YES
Minnesota
Resolved
YES
New Jersey

Poll that is either included in the 538 database or reported on by a reputable news organization as an internal poll commissioned by a campaign or partisan organization.

Resolves regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.

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So this closes July 28th? Are you only counting polls between now and then, or until election day, or something else?

bought แน€500 New Mexico NO

@MarkHamill important q

Maine (statewide, after ranked choice)
bought แน€200 Maine (statewide, af... YES

@MarkHamill And also Maine https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/maine/

I believe this shows him losing ranked choice?

New Jersey
bought แน€500 New Jersey YES

@MarkHamill Trump leading by 1 point in latest poll https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-jersey/

Seems like this will either be a short market or I have to add like Hawaii and Maryland lol

Minnesota
bought แน€100 Minnesota YES

@MarkHamill Trump is leading in several recent polls here, so shouldn't it resolve yes immediately? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

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