This market resolves to the tipping point state in the 2024 US presidential general election.

Colloquially, this is the state that “tips” the election to the winner, allocating states in order of decreasing margin.

In a bit more detail:

• Let “winner” be the candidate who wins at least 270 electoral college votes in a US Presidential election.

• Let a state’s “margin” be the difference in votes between the winner and second place finisher, divided by the number of votes cast in that state.

• Then sort states by decreasing margin, and begin counting electoral votes by state. For some state, after its votes are counted, the winner will have at least 270 electoral college votes: this is the tipping point state.

• See Nate Silver’s article for an illustration of tipping point states.

• If there is no absolute majority in the electoral college (eg, a 269-269 tie), the market resolves to None.

• Manifold will resolve this market when the popular vote counts released by the Associated Press are comprehensive enough to make this determination, i.e., after all states have been called, and the popular vote margins are known within sufficient margin to determine the tipping point state.

• It is possible for the tipping point “state” to be a district of Maine or Nebraska, because these states allocate 1 electoral college vote per district in addition to 2 for the entire state. In the preceding description, “state” means “state or district: NE-1, NE-2, NE-3, ME-1, ME-2.”