Resolution criteria

This market will resolve "Yes" if the S&P 500 index closes at least 20% lower than its value on the day of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections within 30 calendar days following the election date. If the S&P 500 does not decline by at least 20% within this 30-day window, the market will resolve "No."

The closing price of the S&P 500 on the day of the election and the subsequent daily closing prices will be verified using official data from S&P Dow Jones Indices or a reliable financial reporting source such as Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance. A "crash" is defined here as a sudden, rapid, double-digit decline in the index value, specifically reaching or exceeding a 20% drop from the election-day closing price at any point within the specified timeframe.

Background

A stock market crash is generally characterized by a sudden, dramatic, and widespread decline in stock prices, often driven by panic selling and significant loss of market value. While there is no single universally accepted numerical definition, many analysts and financial historians describe a "crash" as a rapid decline of 20% or more within a short period.

Historical data suggests that midterm election years often exhibit higher market volatility due to political uncertainty surrounding the composition of Congress and potential shifts in regulatory, tax, or spending policies. While markets have historically shown a tendency to experience "drags" or weaker returns leading up to midterm elections, they have frequently exhibited strong rebounds following the resolution of election uncertainties. Most financial professionals emphasize that broad economic fundamentals—such as inflation, interest rates, and corporate earnings—are the primary drivers of market performance, rather than election outcomes themselves.

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