An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and wins the presidential election.
An option resolves No if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and loses the presidential election.
An option resolves N/A if that person is not the 2024 Democratic Party nominee.
For a version of this question that resolves based on either the 2024 or the 2028 nominee, see here:
/ManifoldPolitics/who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-9c4d510caf24
For the Republican Party, see here:
/ManifoldPolitics/who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-2f4e0b318013
This is much more interesting: https://manifold.markets/PatrickLV/what-will-the-democratic-ticket-be-x5bz7fdzk?r=Q2VzYXJHYW1pbmdhbmRWbG9ncw
someone with more mana than me ought to arb this with https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
A switch out after the convention is very unlikely, so I think this market's accuracy would be best served by promising to return traders' conditional investments as soon as possible. So we'll resolve all non-nominees to N/A after the convention is over.
Other markets can be made about scenarios where the nominee changes after the convention for whatever unlikely reason.
@ManifoldPolitics does this resolve YES in addition to the option for that specific Democrat if (for example) Gretchen Whitmer wins? Or should this be read as "any other Democrat except those listed here"?
@ManifoldPolitics The liquidity here is terrible, a measly 100$ bet on kamala moves it by 5%.
I believe pretty strongly that Biden will be the nominee (My biggest bet on this website so far...) But if you think this is a pertinent question maybe consider injecting some sweet sweet manna....