Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024? [More Answers]
Basic
94
แน€25k
Nov 11
69%
Michelle Obama
67%
Pete Buttigieg
65%
Andy Beshear
65%
Josh Shapiro
60%
Raphael Warnock
55%
Gretchen Whitmer
54%
Jared Polis
46%
J. B. Pritzker
44%
Gavin Newsom
43%
Hakeem Jeffries
37%
Kamala Harris
25%
Joe Biden

An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and wins the presidential election.

An option resolves No if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and loses the presidential election.

An option resolves N/A if that person is not the 2024 Democratic Party nominee.

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Can you add more of the weirder options? Mitt Romney, RFK, Bernie Sanders, AOC, etc.

I'd love to see RFK as an option here.

bought แน€50 Michelle Obama YES

Can we see a progressive on this list? Maybe Bernie, AOC, Ro Khanna...

You don't need to add them all, but I'm curious how one would stack up.

Data For Progress ran a poll the day after the debate:
In a one-on-one matchup against Trump, Whitmer and Booker are down 2 percentage points, while Biden, Harris, Newsom, Pritzker, Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Klobuchar are all down 3 points.


And for net favorability you have Booker (+6), Klobuchar (+5), Buttigieg (+2), Shapiro (+2), Whitmer (+1), Pritzker (-3), Harris (-7), Newsom (-9), and Biden (-10)

this market is a dumb stonk

opened a แน€1,000 Andy Beshear NO at 75% order

@ManifoldPolitics this market deserves more liquidity!

Somewhat telling that most often talked about replacements are also the ones who are lowest on this market

Genius, the only one doing worse than Joe is Kamala

opened a แน€1,000 J. B. Pritzker NO at 41% order

Just put down 10k in limit orders on this really crucial market!

sold แน€56 J. B. Pritzker NO

@ManifoldPolitics Maybe add Roy Cooper to this?

bought แน€100 Gavin Newsom NO

Very decision-relevant market that I wish had more traders