Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US presidential election?
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US presidential election?
resolved by
587
10kṀ510k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO

If Biden does not do this before August, this market will be cancelled and mana traded will be returned.

If Biden does drop out and endorse Harris, this market resolves YES if she wins the 2024 US Presidential Election and NO if she does not.

See the following market for base rate:

Politics
US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Democratic Party
Joe Biden
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5mo

@ManifoldPolitics @mods the linked market has resolved

5mo

Womp womp

5mo

Arbitrage opportunity with this:
https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

bought Ṁ444 NO5mo

Why are the subsidies so low in these official but secondary Presidential election markets?

Can't bet size on Pennsylvania, etc.

6mo
bought Ṁ75 NO

Give me a break you guys. I swear the Democrats could nominate a gorilla to run for president and liberals would proudly declare their candidate was "now leading in polls" ...of course they are.

8mo

Biden was losing in the same polls Kamala is now winning in. Polls are directly relevant to the election, so I'm not sure I understand what the complaint here is.

Manifold is in a Democrat bubble so the market is going to skew their direction

7mo

I mean, we're doing what prediction markets encourage: putting our money/mana where our mouths are.

It either resolves YES or NO; you're either pregnant or you're not. If you like buying NO shares, it benefits you for the percentage to go up because you can buy NO shares at a cheaper rate.

If you think YES holders are wrong, you can funnel more mana against them to profit off of them and prove a point.

Be mindful though. Buying shares should be indicative of what you think will happen, not of what you want to happen.

If you think it skews Democrat, then bet on Republicans for free mana!

bought Ṁ800 NO8mo

No

bought Ṁ100 YES8mo

I stand with Kamala.

8mo

Why?

8mo

Because I don't like Trump and she is the only other reasonable choice.

8mo

Kamala is an Alex Soros puppet.

8mo

Prove it.

9mo

related (no endorsement, no month restriction)

If Biden drops out in favor of Kamala Harris, will she win the election against Trump?NO‌

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