Who would win the US Presidential Election, if they were the Democratic Party nominee in 2024?
Nov 11
Gretchen Whitmer
[Any Democrat Except Biden or Harris]
Pete Buttigieg
Joe Biden
Gavin Newsom
Kamala Harris

An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and wins the presidential election.

An option resolves No if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and loses the presidential election.

An option resolves N/A if that person is not the 2024 Democratic Party nominee.

For a version of this question that resolves based on either the 2024 or the 2028 nominee, see here:


For the Republican Party, see here:


Get Ṁ200 play money
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'Any democrat' being higher than any particular democrat shows how nonfunctinal this market is

bought Ṁ100 [Any Democrat Except... NO

@Tumbles A good observation! Actually, I was just looking at some polling showing the other dems all doing worse against Trump than Biden. Let's see what happens when I buy them down.

I think it's just too difficult to distinguish between Newsom, Whitmer, and so on at this point. There's not enough polling, and their name ID isn't high enough when they are polled.

It actually might be best to simply focus on the overall question of "anyone but Biden".

@ManifoldPolitics Generic democrat (anyone but biden) is also not very useful. Generic democrat does not have any opinions, appearance, history, charisma, trustworthiness or anything that people actually vote on. For example Biden is very generic democrat, except he is very old. All other candidates will have their problems, but if you just ask about generic democrat, then you throw away most of these potential problems and ask about something amorphous and loosely defined. People will then usually project someone they want to vote for and they will say yes more often, but once you put in specific person it goes away.

Democrats do not have one obvious pick that has it all, and I think if they had Biden would step down long time ago.

bought Ṁ30 Pete Buttigieg YES

Can we get a version of this where you can add your own answers? I'd love to add Raphael Warnock (and maybe others).

@EricNeyman Sure! Though note you can trade on Warnock in the linked version here:

But for a conditional version with free response, here's a new one: