An option resolves Yes if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and wins the presidential election.
An option resolves No if that person becomes the 2024 Democratic Party nominee and loses the presidential election.
An option resolves N/A if that person is not the 2024 Democratic Party nominee.
For a version of this question that resolves based on either the 2024 or the 2028 nominee, see here:
/ManifoldPolitics/who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-9c4d510caf24
For the Republican Party, see here:
/ManifoldPolitics/who-would-win-the-us-presidential-e-2f4e0b318013
Related questions
@Tumbles A good observation! Actually, I was just looking at some polling showing the other dems all doing worse against Trump than Biden. Let's see what happens when I buy them down.
@ManifoldPolitics Generic democrat (anyone but biden) is also not very useful. Generic democrat does not have any opinions, appearance, history, charisma, trustworthiness or anything that people actually vote on. For example Biden is very generic democrat, except he is very old. All other candidates will have their problems, but if you just ask about generic democrat, then you throw away most of these potential problems and ask about something amorphous and loosely defined. People will then usually project someone they want to vote for and they will say yes more often, but once you put in specific person it goes away.
Democrats do not have one obvious pick that has it all, and I think if they had Biden would step down long time ago.
@EricNeyman Sure! Though note you can trade on Warnock in the linked version here:
But for a conditional version with free response, here's a new one: