Can someone explain to me what the point of this market is? Why would anyone lock up mana on, say, Beshear, when it will without question resolve to N/A as there is no shot they'll be the nominee?

There's no point to trading this market for anyone other than Harris if it's just going to resolve to N/A

someone with more mana than me ought to arb this with https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment. (May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

Joe Manchin would be interesting. Apparently he's considering it

Add Roy Cooper

@ManifoldPolitics

@ManifoldPolitics Can you add Michelle Obama to the list?

If say, Biden was the nominee but then died before the election, would Kamala's option still resolve N/A?

A switch out after the convention is very unlikely, so I think this market's accuracy would be best served by promising to return traders' conditional investments as soon as possible. So we'll resolve all non-nominees to N/A after the convention is over.

Other markets can be made about scenarios where the nominee changes after the convention for whatever unlikely reason.

Giving this market some love since since it was linked to by Nate Silver

@ManifoldPolitics does this resolve YES in addition to the option for that specific Democrat if (for example) Gretchen Whitmer wins? Or should this be read as "any other Democrat except those listed here"?

Correct, both options would resolve yes.

Can you add more options? Andy Beshear, JB Pritzker, etc. - and of course, Michelle Obama?

Check out:

arbitrage! yay!

@ManifoldPolitics The liquidity here is terrible, a measly 100$ bet on kamala moves it by 5%.

I believe pretty strongly that Biden will be the nominee (My biggest bet on this website so far...) But if you think this is a pertinent question maybe consider injecting some sweet sweet manna....

Hmmm will consider, but note we also have

I'm more fond of that one, as it resolves N/A faster and locks people's mana up for less time.

Andy Beshear should be an option!

Please add more options? E.g. the following:

• Andy Beshear

• Amy Klobuchar

• Josh Shapiro

• Hillary Clinton

• JB Pritzker

• Cory Booker

Based on:

https://archive.is/ncOla

Kamala Harris is underrated. Current polls don't mean that much, as people don't really know her.

If she just seems sane, competent, and moderate during her campaign, it's easy to get votes.

Would love to see RFK on here.

Kamala is even more unpopular than Biden, how is she 20 points up here?

22 years

I tried to build a model for Whitmer based on polling data and her performance relative to presidential elections. Base estimate is around ~87% chance of Whitmer winning. Then just depends on how much of a hit you estimate the swap would cause. Lots of assumptions though.

https://dactile.net/p/whitmer-elect-forecast-prob/article.html

Not active enough in US politics to evaluate this but I really appreciate you publicly explaining your model in this way

cool work!

my biggest problem with this model is I think it assumes that voter elasticity and willingness to split tickets is consistent across different elections- in reality, voters are much more willing to split tickets in non presidential years and there are much more persuadable voters. There are also much more persuadable voters in governor's elections than in other elections- presidential races have by far the fewest persuadable voters.

Sanity check: Phil Scott (R) won Vermont by 47 points in 2022, when Biden won it by 36 points in 2020. I think the model would probably predict that he'd win like >45 states, which I would quite confidently bet the under on!

Thanks!
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Yes, this is a good point. With more time I wanted to try to measure the average entropy of governor races compared to president races, and then try to adjust that out.
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The point about Phil Scott is good. This is in the same theme for why trying to apply this model to PA Gov Josh Shapiro and his 15 point win probably wouldn't be reasonable. Here's my general thoughts there:

I would guess state-level correlations would decrease at the extreme ends of changes (and become anticorrelated in more states). However, I hypothesize (but lack good evidence) that there is some threshold of similar-enough elections where can draw inference like this. It is not completely clear whether this threshold is within Whitmer's ~4.5 points difference with ~3.5 CI90 of county variance is in this range. I will say that the estimated shifts do not seem unreasonable.

This model gathers correlation from models of state results in fivethirtyeight/Economist models (using data aggregated by Pearce). However, I'd acknowledge this probably assumes too much state correlation. A better version of the post probably would have discussed this more and shown different scenarios of weakening the correlation (for example, squaring the correlation lowers the Whitmer probability by ~10 points. Only apply the estimated change in MI keeping every other state the same is a ~10 point improvement over Biden (I should add text about this)). Also with more scope it would be good try to figure out better ways of estimating this correlation (including in the extreme ends you describe).

I appreciate the feedback!

I added a update section which incorporates this into the text. I appreciate the feedback @SemioticRivalry . I added your comment in the acknowledgements of the text.