Which party will win the US Presidency in Pennsylvania?
💎
Premium
666
á¹€470k
Jan 1
selection of Walz instead of Shapiro
We've added some free mana as a subsidy to make this a premium market! Nate Silver currently has Pennsylvania's odds at 55.6% Harris to 44.4% Harris, while The Economist has it at 51% Trump to 49% Harris. 538's polling average shows Harris leading 46.2% to Trump's 44.8%.
53%
Democratic Party
47%
Republican Party
0%
Other

Resolves to party of the presidential candidate who wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election. Resolves after the AP calls the race.

Swing States
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#2024 US Election
Get á¹€1,000 play money
13 Comments
Sort by:

Honest question, is getting shot in Pennsylvania not enough to carry the state? Seems like common courtesy not to vote against him.

Getting shot by a supporter in any state might be an indication that you don't have as much support in that state as you thought. Polls are better indicators than common sense and common courtesy.

bought á¹€1,500 Democratic Party YES

We've added some free mana as a subsidy to make this a premium market!

Nate Silver currently has Pennsylvania's odds at 55.6% Harris to 44.4% Trump, while The Economist has it at 51% Trump to 49% Harris.

538's polling average shows Harris leading 46.2% to Trump's 44.8%.

This was all due to @diadematus (Captain Jack Sparrow)

This seems to be why:

https://manifold.markets/jim/trump-to-pass-harris?r=V2VzUmVpc2Vu

https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-the-candidate-who-wins-michiga-9a429b51e1f1

https://penncapital-star.com/voting/analysis-pennsylvania-gop-enjoys-clean-sweep-of-voter-registration-gains-ahead-of-primary-election/

bought á¹€162 Democratic Party YES

Arbitrating with /LiamRutherford/which-candidate-wins-pennsylvania

bought á¹€30 Republican Party YES

Trump is leading every poll by several %

Comment hidden

All states and districts in one market:

More specific version:

Related questions