Will the winner of the POTUS election win... [add answers]?
65
αΉ€9594
Nov 5
95%
Pennsylvania
86%
The House of Representatives
81%
Georgia
80%
Wisconsin
75%
Nevada
74%
Door County, WI?
74%
North Carolina
70%
More than 280 Electoral Votes
68%
The national popular vote
67%
Michigan
66%
Arizona
65%
Clallam County, WA?
62%
The Senate
60%
A majority of states (26+)
57%
Texas
54%
The next presidential debate
52%
A majority of congressional districts
51%
More than 290 Electoral Votes
47%
More than 300 Electoral Votes
46%
an even number of electoral votes?

What will the winner of the election win? Resolution should be straightforward, but here's some examples:

Trump wins Georgia and election -> Georgia resolves YES

Harris wins election but with only 287 EVs -> More than 300 Electoral Votes resolves NO

Market closes before voting day. It resolves as soon as results are known. Faithless electors do not count for resolution.

Get αΉ€1,000 play money
Sort by:

@AndrewG How and when will we get the data?

@AndrewG So probably the Piast Institute?

The House of Representatives

This and the senate question concern the presidential winner's party.

A majority of states (26+)

In 2020, the result was 25-25.

So if Trump wins, the chances that he wins a majority of states are basically 100%, since the only way he can win is by exceeding his 2020 performance, and there's no way he could realistically do that while losing more states than he picks up (He would have to win California or New York or something like that in order for this to occur, but even if that happened, he would win in a landslide with a lot more than 25 states).

Harris can win with fewer than 26 states - if she holds the Rust Belt but loses all the Sun Belt swing states, she'll have only 22 but win the election. But she has a shot at 26 if she wins the Biden states + North Carolina, and of course, it's also possible that a bigger surprise happens where she wins one of the tougher red-leaning states.

@Nightsquared I'm gonna need some clarification on this one.

@bagelfan resolves YES if the potus winner wins a publicized game of monopoly between now and the election.

The next presidential debate

@Nightsquared So whoever wins is who that market resolves to, correct?