What will the Dem Nominee's exact vote share be in the 2024 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania?
Basic
12
Ṁ1944
Nov 17
0.3%
0.0 - 39.9%
0.3%
40.0 - 44.9%
0.4%
45.0 - 45.9%
0.5%
46.0 - 46.9%
0.6%
47.0 - 47.9%
91%
48.0 - 48.9%
3%
49.0 - 49.9%
1.5%
50.0 - 50.9%
0.7%
51.0 - 51.9%
0.4%
52.0 - 52.9%
0.3%
53.0 - 53.9%
0.3%
54.0 - 54.9%
0.3%
55.0 - 59.9%
0.3%
60.0 - 100.0%

Resolves based on the finalized vote count in the 2024 presidential election in the state of Pennsylvania. In 2020 this was 50.01% for Biden, in 2016 it was 47.46% for Clinton, in 2012 it was 51.97% for Obama, and in 2008 it was 54.47% for Obama.

Any Democratic party nominee will be used instead of Biden if he is not the nominee.

You can keep an eye on the current raw polling average here. As of market creation, it's very close.

You can find more questions like this in the 2024 Vote Share Dashboard.

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#Trump
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Joe Biden
#Election margins
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bought Ṁ400 48.0 - 48.9% YES

Should be able to resolve, Harris has 48.5% with 98% in.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy

Perhaps there's a <1% chance it's under 48% and a <5% chance it's over 49%

https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-margin-of-victory

@Joshua can you update the title of this please, to replace Biden with "the Democratic nominee"

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