One of the next major things I want to do with Manifold Politics is to try to forecast what will be different in worlds where Biden is elected vs worlds where Trump is elected.
We recently added a section to the Manifold Politics page for markets like this:
The markets you see now right now were created by the politics account, but I'd like to feature some markets from users. The politics page has so far been great at driving traffic to markets, so inclusion should get you a lot of trader bonuses.
I'll also be awarding bounties here just for submitting markets:
Minimum 300 mana for your first pair of markets, to cover your creation cost plus a little extra.
Up to 1000 mana per pair of good markets that I'd consider including on the politics page, whether or not I include them.
Up to 5000 mana for really impressive markets that I think make the page a lot better.
I may subsidize and boost the markets you submit as well.
Please try to keep your submissions in the same format as the conditional markets we already have:
Markets should ideally have an end date of "before the 2026 midterms" to be consistent with the other markets. Using "before 2026" can also be acceptable, though that might not be enough time for many things to happen.
Two binary markets, one for Biden win and one for Trump win.
A market N/As if that candidate is not elected.
Markets should have objective resolution criteria.
For any markets which do get featured on on the politics page you should also be okay with letting the Politics account make edits, issue clarifications, and decide the resolution in ambiguous cases.
See also:
1,000
3.00
Here's the current conditional section on the Politics page!
We're still planning to do some editing and re-arranging here, but handing out more bounty to everyone who we've got on the page now. All these questions have also gotten a sizeable subsidy and boost, and you can also find them on the If Trump Wins dashboard. Thanks for all your submissions!
/probajoelistic/-if-trump-loses-will-the-us-elector
/probajoelistic/-if-trump-wins-will-the-us-electora
An important question with a third party already tracking it. Feel free to request edits.
Here's the current conditional section on the Politics page!
We're still planning to do some editing and re-arranging here, but handing out more bounty to everyone who we've got on the page now. All these questions have also gotten a sizeable subsidy and boost, and you can also find them on the If Trump Wins dashboard. Thanks for all your submissions!
Also fairly late but here:
/jBosc/if-biden-wins-will-the-us-score-low
/jBosc/if-trump-wins-will-the-us-score-low
Similar to one of the previous submissions but includes three different indexes
I've made some selections! They're not final yet, I want to see how the markets react now that I've given them all a bit of a boost and some subsidy before we add them to the politics page properly. If you want to claim some of the subsidy I just added, you can find the markets I picked here:
https://manifold.markets/news/if-trump-wins
Thanks for all the great submissions! I'll still be awarding more of the bounty here after I see how these markets fair with the dashboard on the front page.
Going to try to choose some winners here soon, so probably not handing out more bounty to new submissions from here on unless it's something really good.
I'm probably aiming for 3-6 pairs of markets, although we could end up rotating what's up on the politics page depending on what gets traction.
If y'all think any of the markets submitted so far are particularly good candidates that you'd like to see chosen, leave them a like or reply to them saying so!
Good submissions all! Refilled the bounty, still going through these. Note I might not give out more bounty if you've already got some bounty, need to save some of this for the larger prizes. One general piece of advice is that I think a good market description with context for why the thing you're asking about might differ under each possible president goes a long way. I appreciate those of you including those!