Which markets will @ManifoldPolitics create as joint probability markets with the "control of government" market?
Mini
3
แน€70
Mar 2
89%
Will abortion before 15 weeks be restricted nationally by 2027?
66%
Will there be a new conservative supreme court justice by 2027?
66%
Will the social security retirement age be raised before 2027?
50%
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by 2027?
50%
Will American Troops engage in active combat in a new foreign conflict by 2027?
50%
Will the US enter a recession by 2028

See market: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-control-the-government-aft

  • If this account creates a market that is very highly (say, 99%) correlated with multiple answers, or if multiple answers are identical except for close/reference time, only the first answer added will be chosen.

  • Therefore, please refrain from adding substantially similar answers to those that already exist, but do propose a complete question text including your suggested close date.

As an example, we're looking for user-generated answers but we'll add one to start: "Will abortion before 15 weeks be restricted nationally by 2025?" h/t @Gabrielle

If this account creates a market of the form, "Will abortion before 15 weeks be restricted nationally by 2025 if there is a GOP trifecta?" OR of the form "How 'will abortion before 15 weeks be restricted nationally by 2025' interact with 'Who will control the government?' or similar,

then "Will abortion before 15 weeks be restricted nationally by 2025?" will be resolved YES on this market.

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Crime rates could be good. They might make sense at state level as well.

Control of government vs. key economic indicators is probably rich ground. Deficit ( /jack/will-the-2025-us-federal-deficit-be for example), GDP growth, inflation, unemployment.

Will American Troops engage in active combat in a new foreign conflict by 2027?

/EvanDaniel/will-the-us-conduct-military-operat

By 2025 is too soon, the new president won't be inaugurated before that end date. By 2029 (end of term) makes more sense, or maybe by 2027 (end of congress).
Answer was changed to be "by 2027"

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