2024 House Races: Which congressional elections will be won by a Republican? [10K Subsidy]
➕
Plus
181
Ṁ96k
Dec 1
52%
CA-13 John Duarte (R) - Won by 0.42% - Full Toss-up
3%
CA-45 Michelle Steel (R) - Lean R
99%
IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Resolved
YES
AK-00 Mary Peltola (D)
Resolved
NO
AL-02 NEW SEAT
Resolved
YES
AZ-01 David Schweikert (R) - Won by 0.88%
Resolved
YES
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R) - Won by 1.50%
Resolved
YES
CA-03 Kevin Kiley (R) - Likely R
Resolved
NO
CA-09 Josh Harder (D)
Resolved
YES
CA-22 David Valadao (R) - Won by 3.05%
Resolved
NO
CA-27 Mike Garcia (R) - Won by 6.48% - Full Toss-up
Resolved
YES
CA-40 Young Kim (R)
Resolved
YES
CA-41 Ken Calvert (R) - Won by 4.69%
Resolved
NO
CA-47 OPEN (Porter) (D)
Resolved
NO
CA-49 Mike Levin (D)
Resolved
YES
CO-03 OPEN (Boebert) (R)
Resolved
YES
CO-08 Yadira Caraveo (D) - Won by 0.69%
Resolved
NO
CT-05 Jahana Hayes (D)
Resolved
NO
FL-09 Darren Soto (D)
Resolved
YES
FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna (R)

This market contains competitive US House Races. The current balance of power is 217 Republican Party members, 214 Democratic Party members, and 5 vacancies.

If a member of the Republican Party wins a house race, then that house race resolves YES in this market. If a member of the Democratic Party wins a race, then that race resolves NO.

If a race is won by someone who is not a member of either party, they will be considered to be a member of the major party they are expected to caucus with. For example, Bernie Sanders would be considered a Democrat and Justin Amash would be considered a Republican.

Races are listed in the format "[district name] [incumbent name] [incumbent party] [margin of victory of incumbent in 2022 election] [Ratings from Cook/Inside/Sabato]"

As of market creation, only the most competitive seats have their margin of victory listed. Additional information and additional races will be added to this market as we get closer to the election.

For additional analysis, you can find projections for these races at Race to The White House, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

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bought Ṁ50 CA-13 John Duarte (R... NO
CA-09 Josh Harder (D)
bought Ṁ173 CA-09 Josh Harder (D) NO

@ManifoldPolitics @mods @Conflux This one (CA-09) resolves NO :)

The only 7 uncalled races are the other six races in this post, (plus CA-21)!

sold Ṁ0 Answer #26e9400c990c YES

An update: ME-02 resolves NO as well :)

Can CA-21 be added?

NE-02 resolves as YES

bought Ṁ100 Answer #e5b440992d97 NO

And OR-06 can resolve as NO.

@ManifoldPolitics @mods

@PaintspotInfez I resolved a bunch based on CNN projections! I think each of the still-open races is uncalled

@Conflux Yup, seems like it! I think AZ-01 now resolves as YES as well

bought Ṁ1,000 CA-27 Mike Garcia (R... NO

@Conflux And, in an exciting twist, CA-27 resolves as NO! :)

@Conflux And CA-22, CA-41, AZ-06, and CO-08 all resolve as YES — and CA-49 resolves as NO.

bought Ṁ400 Answer #cf68ee27449a NO

@Conflux @ManifoldPolitics @mods OR-05 also resolves as NO

(in addition to CA-22, CA-41, AZ-06, and CO-08 all resolving as YES — and CA-49 resolving as NO)

sold Ṁ0 Answer #2bd596dbf092 YES

@Conflux @ManifoldPolitics @mods

And AK-00 resolves YES, while OH-09 resolves NO.

bought Ṁ150 Answer #2385616dc8a2 NO

CA-03, CA-40, CO-03, PA-07, PA-08, WI-03 can resolve YES.

IL-17, MI-03, NC-01, NV-01, NV-03, NV-04, NY-04, OR-04, TX-34, WA-08 can resolve NO.

@ManifoldPolitics @mods

@PaintspotInfez I think I will let @ManifoldPolitics handle most of these.

Ah. Got it.

Well, to whoever plans to handle this, WA-03 also resolves NO :)

bought Ṁ400 Answer #a61d3186ff97 YES

@mods Lots of these can resolve as YES and NO, since lots of these have been called by all the major outlets.

CO-03 OPEN (Boebert) (R)
bought Ṁ20 CO-03 OPEN (Boebert)... NO

@ManifoldPolitics Edit #3: *note to self* "read description"

bought Ṁ50 CO-03 OPEN (Boebert)... NO

deleted

bought Ṁ5 Answer #a80ab7e08d4e NO

There needs to be a better way of organizing this. Ex. doing all the Congressional races in a state. There are too many races on the same page.

So if people wanted to start comments - it wouldn't work. For that you need comments for just a single race. Then people can post news articles, polls, etc.

I lean towards thinking that this is best done as a single market for each race.

@MaybeNotDepends I think the problem with that is that each market doesn't have enough liquidity or is too hard to find. Don't want to have to open a new tab for every market. Maybe just the UI could be better to hide the contract until you click on it. IDK

I can't even tell 💔😂

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