Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2030 elections?
12
1kṀ3962030
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if after the 2030 United States elections members of the Republican party have won at least 51 seats in the Senate, or 50 seats with a Republican Vice President for tie-breaking purposes. Resolves NO otherwise.
If a politically independent/third-party senator is elected, they would count as a Republican for the purposes of this market if they are widely expected to caucus with the Republican party.
Resolves N/A if these elections do not take place.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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