Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race?

19%

chance

19%

chance

Dec 5, 2024

M$365 bet

Conflux bought M$50 of YES

Primarily risk aversion/arbitrage from betting down the Forward 2024 market

Conflux is betting YES at 19%

No electoral college+Approval voting would be very beneficial to 3rd parties.

Does Trump count? It'd be much like the 1912 election.

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Bet

Outcome

Amount

Probability

19%

Payout if YES

M$0(+0.0%)

Mana (M$) is the play-money used by our platform to keep track of your bets. It's completely free for you and your friends to get started!