Conditional on Trump not winning, not only will a third-party candidate never win, but every President will be a military general or lawyer.

@Mira Mark Ingraham seems to have taken over your account, may want to look into that.

@IsaacKing I would put at least 500 mana on YES at 20% that "Excepting Trump, every President from now to 2040 will have studied at law school or served in the military". (With this not making a claim that Trump will win any election)

@Mira

Does third party here mean any party other than Democratic and Republican, even if those are no longer the main two parties?

@StevenK If one of the two current parties changes its name but remains basically the same, it still counts as one of the current parties.

@IsaacKing What I had in mind was more like "if every election from 2028 through 2040 is Democrats versus Libertarians, is the Libertarian party still a third party?"

@StevenK So a situation like this one?

• 2024:

• 2024:

• 2024:

Whoops, not sure why that comment posted before I was done, sorry.

@StevenK So a situation like this one?

• 2024: Democrats vs. Republicans vs. a larger libertarian share than usual. Republicans win.

• 2028: Democrats vs. Republicans vs. an even larger libertarian share, starts to look concerning. Democrats win.

• 2032: Democrats vs Republicans vs. Libertarians. Libertarians get more votes than the Republicans. Democrats win.

• 2036: Democrats vs Libertarians, Democrats win, Republicans begin to fade into irrelevance.

• 2040: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Democrats win.

• 2044: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Democrats win.

• 2048: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Democrats win.

• 2052: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Democrats win.

• 2046: Democrats vs. Libertarians. Libertarians win.

In that case I think it's likely I'd treat the libertarian party as the new Republican party under a different name and with a different policy focus. (Since presumably it's a lot of the same people.) But if they had won earlier, like in 2036, I'd consider that to be a true third-party victory.

@IsaacKing Yeah, that's what I meant. It sounds like since this question ends in 2040, there probably won't be time for a third party to become a first/second party in this way?

@StevenK Oh, my example was ignoring the resolution date I had chosen. (My last bullet also says "2046", when it should have said "2056", that was a typo.) I think the same process could feasibly happen faster and finish before 2040.

• 2024: Democrats vs. Republicans vs. the Trump party. Trump party gets about as many votes as the Republican party. Democrats win.

• 2028: Democrats vs Trump party, Democrats win, Republicans begin to fade into irrelevance.

• 2032: Democrats vs. Trump. Democrats win.

• 2036: Democrats vs. Trump. Democrats win.

• 2040: Democrats vs. Trump. Trump wins.

I would not consider that a third-party win, I would consider that a hostile takeover of the Republican party. I think a true third party victory needs to either be less gradual or take about equal numbers of people from both original parties.

@IsaacKing What if Trump won in 2028 in this scenario, almost entirely through support from formerly Republican voters?

@StevenK Gah, corner cases! I'll say that counts as a true third-party victory.

Will a third-party candidate win the US presidency by 2040?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition