Will there be a robust third party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race?
Basic
131
13k
Dec 5
10%
chance

Inspired by Nate Silver's tweet:


Resolution Criteria

Any one of the following of what Nate counts as impact:

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Jul 28, 5:32pm: [Austin] Description formatting

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bought Ṁ100 YES

That last bullet (playing spoiler) is looking a lot more likely these days.

With the news about No Labels being a potential spoiler and seemingly having enough support to fit the criteria, maybe this should be a little higher. Of course, that all depends on whether they actually run a candidate.

predicts YES

See also

predicts YES

@StevenK Oops, looks like it didn't embed. See also

predicts YES

@StevenK Are you spamming this?

predicts YES

@StevenK I was trying to link this market, which seems relevant to me and not spam, but I think there may be a bug with the embedding.

predicts YES

@StevenK Yes, I am simply joking about it! 🤣 Appreciate the sharing and thank you.

How does this resolve if there's an independent candidate who meets one of the criteria, instead of a third party candidate?

@ManifoldMarkets I have the same question.

Primarily risk aversion/arbitrage from betting down the Forward 2024 market
No electoral college+Approval voting would be very beneficial to 3rd parties.
Does Trump count? It'd be much like the 1912 election.