At any point before February 1, 2045, will there be a major third party in US politics? [read desc]
Mini
3
Ṁ63
2045
32%
chance

Resolves YES when, at any point prior to market close, any one political party besides the Republican Party or Democratic Party simultaneously has ≥25 points from the following sources:

  • State governor - worth 8 points

  • US Senator - worth 8 points

  • US House rep - worth 3 points

  • POTUS - worth 25 points

For example, if the Green Party held 2 US Senate seats and 3 US House seats at the same time (8 + 8 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 25), this market would resolve YES. However, if the Green Party held 2 US Senate seats and one House seat, lost them, and then later gained two House seats, this market would not resolve YES yet.

One party must reach 25 points on their own - for example, if the Green Party had two Senators and the Fhqwhgads Party had two Senators, this market would not resolve YES yet.

If this market closes without a YES condition ever being reached, this market resolves NO.

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