Will the presidential candidate from Andrew Yang et al's "Forward" party receive any electoral votes in the 2024 US presidential election?

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resolved Nov 6

Resolved

N/A

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I will use the count reported on archives.gov for resolution. (example: https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020)

Faithless electors (i.e. electors who cast their votes for a candidate other than the one their state sent them to cast their vote for) do count for resolution of this question. For reference, faithless electors cast 7 of the 538 electoral votes for president for candidates other than Trump/Clinton in 2016.

Jul 30, 8:00am: if the Forward party does not run any candidate in the 2024 election, resolves N/A. If they run a candidate who later drops out (even if before the election), resolves NO.

Jul 30, 8:21am: actually, I should clarify - I'd still resolve YES if the candidate drops out but still manages to get the votes to meet the question criteria. Question means what the text says, nothing more, nothing less.

Nov 3: one more clarification; the Forward party has to actually run a candidate of their own for this to count - if they simply endorse a candidate of another major party, that would be an N/A resolution.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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@mods please N/A (Forward Party did not run a candidate)

@MattP Done!

obviously no, but on Manifold betting long term makes no sense

Hedging my hopes.

What does this resolve as if Forward endorses a major party candidate? If NO, I’ll bet more.

predictedYES

@Conflux hmm - I think the answer that would be truest to the question wording would be for an endorsement not to have any effect on the result. If they run a candidate themselves, question resolves based on that candidate's performance (so if that candidate later drops out I'd resolve NO). If they don't run any candidate, I'd resolve N/A.

predictedYES

@Conflux so to clarify, if they don't run any candidate but instead endorse a candidate from a different major party, I'd resolve N/A. If they run a candidate but that candidate drops out or endorses someone, I'd resolve according to whatever that specific candidate gets in the vote. Seem fair?

predictedNO

@MattP Cool, thanks for the clarification.

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