This resolves "yes" if there are at least two different candidates who both at any point satisfy at least one of the criteria listed in https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-there-be-a-robust-third-party and resolves "no" otherwise.
These candidates can be independent or affiliated with any party other than the Democratic and Republican parties. The criteria need not be met at the same time. For example, if candidate 1 is invited to one of the major-party presidential debates and then drops out, and then candidate 2 wins a state on election day, that counts. However, if two candidates run for the same third party at different times, or they have the same running mate or one was ever the other's running mate, I'll count them as a continuation of the same candidate. This is a little subjective, so I won't bet in this market.
Not sure why this was staying at 5% for so long. If we take the third party movement's market prediction as the true probability, 5% for this market means there's slightly over a 1/3 chance that the third party candidate scenario develops into a 4th party candidate scenario. That seemed too high.
@DavidHiggs I think the disjunctive nature of the criteria makes it easy to underestimate both of these markets somewhat
