Will the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022?
Jan 1, 2023
From Vox Future Perfect’s predictions for 2022: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22824620/predicting-midterms-covid-roe-wade-oscars-2022 Resolved according to Vox’s judgment, as given through future posts.
Politico reported on May 11th that none of the 5 original justices who sided with the leaked draft opinion have yet to change their votes. They further reported that no additional draft other than the leaked one has been circulated. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/11/alito-abortion-draft-opinion-roe-00031648
The leaked draft was dated Feb 10th and is marked as the first draft. In the intervening months between when the draft was written and when it was leaked, I can assume 1 of 4 things took place - A) the majority bloc in favor of the opinion has held together B) the majority bloc has drifted apart C) there never was a majority If A is true, there’s no reason for a supporter or an opponent to leak an old draft now. The final opinion is likely to be released within six weeks. Leaking this document changes nothing. If B is true, an opponent of the opinion has no reason to leak it, because to them, the tides are already shifting in the right direction. But a supporter of the opinion would have an incentive to leak an earlier opinion and thereby pressure the defectors back toward the first draft. If C is true the tactical outcome would be the same as case (b)—the leak would benefit whoever wants to restore a coalition around this version of the opinion. Based on this line of reasoning, I believe that the majority bloc of the 1st draft has drifted apart and that the leaking of the document is to bring the original bloc back together. I do not think those efforts will be successful, therefore I predict RvW will not be overturned. (sorry for the market correction)
correction2: I said 1/4 things. The fourth reason for the leak is the Court wanted to test public opinion, but since public opinion has consistently shown support for RvW over the past couple of decades coupled with the fact that it would be extremely out of character of the court to consider public opinion, I discounted this theory as being the least likely.
Vox is reporting that the leaked first draft of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, if released, would unambiguously overturn Roe: https://www.vox.com/2022/5/3/23054543/supreme-court-roe-wade-abortion-samuel-alito-overruled-draft-politico
The resolution of this market is imprecise, as it is based upon, "Vox's Opinion," which could be more nuanced even if the case in question is overturned. For a bet on the actual outcome of the case, Dobbs. v. Jackson Women's Health organization, go here: https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo