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MANIFOLD
Will Roe v. Wade be federally codified by 2032-05-06?
16
Ṁ1kṀ262
2032
25%
chance

Resolves to yes if U.S. Congress passes a law or laws widely considered to restore all or almost all of the rights to abortion that were present under Roe v Wade. What is considered "all or almost all" is up to my judgement, but feel free to ask me questions about it.

Mar 12, 9:17am: Will Roe v. Wade be federally codified in the next 10 years? → Will Roe v. Wade be federally codified by 2032-05-06?

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Such a bill has been introduced. https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-the-reproductive-freedom-for-a
0% chance. Dems can take back the Senate in 2028, but by a very weak margin. The 2030 midterms will be crushing for them, and 2032 is a pure tossup at this point (though Ds are arguably favored). So there's basically a very unlikely 2028-30 window of opportunity Dems will certainly blow.

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