Will Roe v. Wade be federally codified in the next 10 years?
25%
chance
May 7, 2032
M$172 bet
Resolves to yes if U.S. Congress passes a law or laws widely considered to restore all or almost all of the rights to abortion that were present under Roe v Wade. What is considered "all or almost all" is up to my judgement, but feel free to ask me questions about it.
EnopoletusHarding

Enopoletus Harding 19 days ago

0% chance. Dems can take back the Senate in 2028, but by a very weak margin. The 2030 midterms will be crushing for them, and 2032 is a pure tossup at this point (though Ds are arguably favored). So there's basically a very unlikely 2028-30 window of opportunity Dems will certainly blow.