Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, "Overturning Roe v. Wade," in the United States?

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Ṁ1621

resolved Jun 24

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YES

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https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/19-1392.html This case is largely cited as the one which would, "Overturn Roe v. Wade." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women's_Health_Organization However it is possible that the interpretation of, "Overturning Roe v. Wade," may differ when getting into the details. Thus, the bet itself is purely on the outcome of the case, not on, "Overturning Roe v. Wade," which is in quotes and stated as, "colloquially," for said reason. A "YES" vote means that the Supreme Court Conservative wing votes as expected and supports the State of Mississippi Department of Health. A "NO" vote means that the Supreme Court Liberal wing votes as expected, and a sufficient number of conservative justices jump over and support the Jackson Women's Health Organization in the outcome of the case. This market is scheduled to close at the middle of the day EST on June 18th, 2022, the day the case is supposed to be heard. If for whatever reason the case is heard later, or judgement is pushed to a later date the resolution of the market will change but the market will remain closed per Manifold Market's rules.

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Based on my comment here: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-the-supreme-court-overturn-roe One explanation is that the leak of the draft opinion was the act of a liberal judge to generate liberal political pressure to either force Congress to enact explicit legislation or to influence the Court. An alternative explanation is that the draft leak was the act of a conservative judge in order to rally now-defected supporters to an earlier opinion via conservative public pressure. Tactically, I feel like the second scenario more likely especially since Clarence Thomas's wife has ties to Jan 6th which I feels gives at least one Conservative judge a partial prior for interfering with political systems.

predicted YES

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473

Leaked opinion suggests that Roe will be overturned.

I think this is too high, metaculus has it ~72% by 2028 (includes some discussion of Dobbs in the comments). https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/roe-v-wade-overturned-by-jul-31-2028/

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