Will the SCOTUS make a controversial, decisive decision in the 2028 presidential election?
Mini
1
171
2029
62%
No
6%
Yes, in favor of Democrats
32%
Yes, in favor of Republicans

Decisive: if the decision was not made, there's a good chance that the other party would've won.

Controversial: decided by me, in conversation with traders, based on a high level of controversy in the mainstream legal community.

Bush v Gore would be classified as 'Yes, in favor of Republicans', even though some recounts still had Bush winning.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore

I will not bet in this market.

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