
Will the SCOTUS make a controversial, decisive decision in the 2028 presidential election?
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68%
No
3%
Yes, in favor of Democrats
29%
Yes, in favor of Republicans
Decisive: if the decision was not made, there's a good chance that the other party would've won.
Controversial: decided by me, in conversation with traders, based on a high level of controversy in the mainstream legal community.
Bush v Gore would be classified as 'Yes, in favor of Republicans', even though some recounts still had Bush winning.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore
I will not bet in this market.
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