When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 50% for one month?
2024 or 2025
2026 or 2027
2028 or 2029
Not before 2030

Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 50% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?

This market resolves to the period of time in which an eligible market first stays above 50%, not the period of time that the market predicts AGI to be announced.

This means that if a real money market in 2025 expects OpenAI to announce AGI in 2027, this market resolves to the option "2024 or 2025"

Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.

To resolve this Manifold market, an eligible real money market must have limit orders keeping the price above 50% for at least 30 days, with the displayed price never dropping below 50% for more than 24 continuous hours.

Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question. Your feedback is welcome in the comments.

As of market creation, our friends at Polymarket and Kalshi both have markets asking if OpenAI will announce that it has created Artificial General Intelligence in 2024. Currently, these markets are both at about 10% with thousands of dollars in volume and limit orders.

Future markets which are similar to these in criteria, quality, and trade volume will be added to this market description and will then also count for resolution here. If you know of any other real-money markets which should be added, please leave a comment below or message this account.

Currently eligible markets:

This market's close date is currently set for the end of 2024, but will be extended each year for one year until it resolves.

See also: /ManifoldAI/will-openai-agi-be-expected-by-real

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