This is Kevin's low-confidence prediction from the 1/3/25 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.
Market will resolve to yes if OpenAI (or a top OpenAI executive, such as Sam Altman or Greg Brockman) claims to have achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI) in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.
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https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-a-financial-definition-of-agi-report/
Reportedly, OpenAI needs to achieve $100 billion in profits before they can declare that they've achieved AGI. So that probably won't happen for a few years.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 But they just have to claim it for market to resolve yes... They are already hinting at it. But i think it's not really AGI as many people would define it. Probably we will see AGI in the next few years
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Wouldn't getting to 100 billion in profits once you have AGI take like an hour or two?
@Shai I guess that depends what exactly is meant by AGI. But I don't think they'll reach that level this year.