Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
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This is Kevin's low-confidence prediction from the 1/3/25 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.
Market will resolve to yes if OpenAI (or a top OpenAI executive, such as Sam Altman or Greg Brockman) claims to have achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI) in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-a-financial-definition-of-agi-report/
Reportedly, OpenAI needs to achieve $100 billion in profits before they can declare that they've achieved AGI. So that probably won't happen for a few years.
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