Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
199
1kṀ43k
2026
5%
chance

This is Kevin's low-confidence prediction from the 1/3/25 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.

Market will resolve to yes if OpenAI (or a top OpenAI executive, such as Sam Altman or Greg Brockman) claims to have achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI) in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.

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