Maybe more important than the single vote shares of each party would be the sum of the shares of the parties within each of the two main opposing blocks with realistic chances for chancellor. Think about, what if the SPD and Greens formed some official alliance in the next Bundestag or when negotiating a coalition with the CDU/CSU parties? Then the "winner" heavily depends on the question whether SPD and Greens combined get more seats than CDU/CSU! See this market for some probabilities.

This question is underdefined. CDU and CSU are separate parties.

@nikki https://www.deutschland.de/en/topic/politics/the-cducsu-parties-in-the-german-bundestag

also: https://polymarket.com/event/germany-parliamentary-election?tid=1738893701420

CDU/CSU: the sister parties

The sister parties CDU and CSU, known as the “Union” for short, form the traditionally strongest party in Germany. Read here what they stand for.