Will the AfD win a constituency seat in Western Germany?
5
100Ṁ238Mar 1
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Alternative für Deutschland has never won a direct constituency mandate in Western Germany since its founding in 2013. Will this change in 2025?
This market will resolve YES if the AfD wins at least one direct constituency mandate (Direktmandat) in any Western German state during the 2025 German federal election. Western German states are defined as:
Baden-Württemberg
Bavaria
Bremen
Hamburg
Hesse
Lower Saxony
North Rhine-Westphalia
Rhineland-Palatinate
Saarland
Schleswig-Holstein
The market will resolve NO if the AfD fails to win any direct constituency mandates in these states, or if no election is held by the end of February 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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