Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?
14
85
แน€1k
2025
69%
chance

This question will be determined by the secondary vote results in Berlin, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia. 2021 the SPD was the party with the most votes in eastern Germany:

Thuringia

SPD 296.446

AfD 303.233

Saxony-Anhalt

SPD 305.085

AfD 235.492

Saxony

SPD 474.804

AfD 607.044

Berlin

SPD 428.289

AfD 153.694

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

SPD 267.368

AfD 165.342

Brandenburg

SPD 450.573

AfD 277.412

Adds up to:

SPD 2.222.565

AfD 1.742.217

Resolves to "No", if another party has more secondary votes than the AfD.

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Those results will be weighted equally, i assume? So, not adjusted for size of the respective electorate?

predicts YES

@Schwabilismus I have edited the description to make it more understandable.