Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?
Standard
20
Ṁ10842025
62%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will be determined by the secondary vote results in Berlin, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia. 2021 the SPD was the party with the most votes in eastern Germany:
SPD 296.446
AfD 303.233
Saxony-Anhalt
SPD 305.085
AfD 235.492
Saxony
SPD 474.804
AfD 607.044
Berlin
SPD 428.289
AfD 153.694
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
SPD 267.368
AfD 165.342
Brandenburg
SPD 450.573
AfD 277.412
Adds up to:
SPD 2.222.565
AfD 1.742.217
Resolves to "No", if another party has more secondary votes than the AfD.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
Related for anyone interested: https://manifold.markets/TimonSchneider/will-the-farright-german-party-alte?r=VGltb25TY2huZWlkZXI
Related questions
Related questions
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?
41% chance
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
44% chance
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the Greens in Germany's next federal election?
88% chance
WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
39% chance
Which of these parties will get seats in the German Bundestag after the next federal election?
What will be the results of the next German federal election?
Will die Linke win any seats in the next German federal election?
19% chance
Will AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) become the leader of polls in Germany in 2024?
4% chance
Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?
10% chance
Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?
73% chance