What will be the results of the next German federal election?
39
1kṀ3031
resolved Feb 27
23%25%
CDU
21%21%
AfD
16%15%
SPD
12%14%
GRÜNE
9%8%
DIE LINKE
6%4%
CSU
5%4%
BSW
5%3%Other
4%5%
FDP

The next German federal election will be held on or before 26 October 2025 to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag.

What share of the propotional vote ('Zweitstimme') will each party receive?

The market will resolve the same as the official final results published by the Bundeswahlleiterin.

Current polls are available at https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/

See https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/bundestagswahlen/340863/waehlerstimmen/ for the result of the last election.

CDU and CSU are considered seperate parties for this question

Let me know if you want me to add additional parties.

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Is there any chance the CSU will merge into the CDU because of the new electoral law?

@BrunoParga nope, the constitutional court ruled that the old rules regarding the Grundmandatsklausel still apply, so they can go an as is tradition

@AlexbGoode Please add BSW

@Primer done

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