The next federal election in Germany will presumably take place in the fall of 2025. Will die Linke win any seats as a result, either by winning at least 5% of the proportional vote or by having any candidate win their constituency directly?
You can find a summary of current polling here, for example.
UPD. Note that, according to the new electoral legislation, winning three districts directly is not sufficient for winning any seats in parliament anymore.
See also:
Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm
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In the last two weeks, they gained +11.000 and are now over 70.000 members.
https://www.rnd.de/politik/linke-erlebt-mitgliederboom-zahl-steigt-auf-ueber-70-000-IE2A3IFGZZISVMAF3SC4ZUTFHQ.html
@marktwse not sure how much that matters for this question actually, we're getting close to the election. Maybe they can mobilize a bit better in the key districts because of all the new members, maybe the have a bit more money to spend.
But it's definitely a positive signal for them! More members is probably directly correlated with more voters.
@LudwigBald just for the record: I was wrong, die Linke only gets seats if they get at least 5% of Zweitstimmen or at least 3 direct mandates. I still think they have a reasonable chance in the following Wahlkreise:
Berlin-Lichtenberg: Ines Schwerdtner.
Die Linke got the direct mandate here in the last 6 elections, albeit with a different candidate and only a 5p.p. lead to the SPD last time.
Berlin-Treptow-Köpenick: Gregor Gysi.
Gysi is very popular and won the direct mandate here a few times, with a comfortable lead.
Leipzig II: Sören Pellmann.
Pellmann won in this very left-leaning area last time with a comfortable lead. He might do it again.
Erfurt – Weimar – Weimarer Land II: Bodo Ramelow.
Ramelow is the former minister president of the state Thüringen, he's perceived as reasonable and competent. Last time, Die Linke's candidate came in 8p.p. behind the SPD candidate. Maybe Ramelow's popularity is enough to convince voters to vote for him.
Rostock – Landkreis Rostock II: Dietmar Bartsch.
Bartsch has had multiple leading positions in the party. Last time, he got 18.2% vs. the SPD candidate's 27.0%. CDU got 17%. I think he might beat out the SPD, but the CDU will also get more votes, so it's kind of unlikely he'll win.
Overall, it's hard for me to gauge how much support of the pre-split left party transfers over to the remaining party, especially for the local population in their Wahlkreise.
Also, last time a bunch of Die Linke's success was based on tactical voters, especially in Leipzig. I'm not sure if progressive tactical voters would even want Die Linke to be represented in the Bundestag. If Die Linke get in, that might mean that e.g. the CDU-Grüne coalition is no longer viable.
I think it's likely that they win two of the 5 promising options above, and I would not be surprised if they win 3. After this quick research session, about 40% seems right to me.
While they are polling at 4% right now I believe there will be some regression to the mean and they will get 5% or maybe 6% in the election. I think it is more like a 60% chance that they will be in parliament.
Also remember the horseshoe theory of politics. AfD is getting a lot of the vote share right now in polling but a lot of radical voters might also opt for Linke again.
worth noting that there has been a reform of German electoral systems that make history a less reliable guide: https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1636719809697132544?t=vH0MQxZ9cTMgoekcOi-aUw&s=08
@Drewd there might also be a split with Sarah Wagenknecht, which should bring this market down even more imo