Will die Linke win any seats in the next German federal election?
27
closes 2025
44%
chance

The next federal election in Germany will presumably take place in the fall of 2025. Will die Linke win any seats as a result, either by winning at least 5% of the proportional vote or by having any candidate win their constituancy directly?

You can find a summary of current polling here, for example.

See also:


Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm

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MaxG avatar
MaxG

While they are polling at 4% right now I believe there will be some regression to the mean and they will get 5% or maybe 6% in the election. I think it is more like a 60% chance that they will be in parliament.

Also remember the horseshoe theory of politics. AfD is getting a lot of the vote share right now in polling but a lot of radical voters might also opt for Linke again.

drevv avatar
drevvsold Ṁ10 of YES

worth noting that there has been a reform of German electoral systems that make history a less reliable guide: https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1636719809697132544?t=vH0MQxZ9cTMgoekcOi-aUw&s=08

1 reply
kottsiek avatar
kottsiekpredicts NO

@Drewd there might also be a split with Sarah Wagenknecht, which should bring this market down even more imo