Will die Linke win any seats in the next German federal election? | Manifold

Will die Linke win any seats in the next German federal election?

27

closes 2025

44%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The next federal election in Germany will presumably take place in the fall of 2025. Will die Linke win any seats as a result, either by winning at least 5% of the proportional vote or by having any candidate win their constituancy directly?

You can find a summary of current polling here, for example.

See also:

Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm

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While they are polling at 4% right now I believe there will be some regression to the mean and they will get 5% or maybe 6% in the election. I think it is more like a 60% chance that they will be in parliament.

Also remember the horseshoe theory of politics. AfD is getting a lot of the vote share right now in polling but a lot of radical voters might also opt for Linke again.

drevvsold Ṁ10 of YES

worth noting that there has been a reform of German electoral systems that make history a less reliable guide: https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1636719809697132544?t=vH0MQxZ9cTMgoekcOi-aUw&s=08

1 reply

kottsiekpredicts NO

@Drewd there might also be a split with Sarah Wagenknecht, which should bring this market down even more imo

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 YES at 44% (cancelled) 🤖

DWK bought Ṁ50 NO from 47% to 43%

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 YES at 47% 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ21/Ṁ100 YES at 45% (cancelled) 🤖

DWK bought Ṁ100 NO from 52% to 43%

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 52% 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ53/Ṁ100 NO at 54% (cancelled) 🤖

MaxG bought Ṁ300 YES from 34% to 60%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 YES at 34% (cancelled) 🤖

DWK bought Ṁ100 NO from 39% to 32%

Christian bought Ṁ5 NO from 40% to 39%

Marktweise bought Ṁ20 NO from 41% to 40%

Nils bought Ṁ10 YES from 40% to 41%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 YES at 40% (cancelled) 🤖

kottsiek bought Ṁ50 NO from 43% to 38%

Johann K bought Ṁ20 NO from 45% to 43%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 NO at 45% (cancelled) 🤖

Chocobo sold Ṁ32 NO from 43% to 46%

kottsiek filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 50%

Max Payne bought Ṁ50 NO from 49% to 43%

Chocobo bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 49%

MAcs 19R1 bought Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 50%

John Smith bought Ṁ10 YES from 47% to 48%

Chocobo bought Ṁ10 NO from 48% to 47%

Chocobo bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 48%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ14 YES at 50%

Felix Wöstmann bought Ṁ50 NO from 55% to 48%

kottsiek bought Ṁ5 NO from 56% to 55%

kottsiek bought Ṁ10 NO from 58% to 56%

harfe sold Ṁ8 NO from 56% to 58%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ14 YES at 56% (cancelled)

drevv bought Ṁ20 NO from 58% to 54%

drevv sold Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 58%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 48%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 78%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 69%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 39%

drevv bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 59%

Hamish Low bought Ṁ30 YES from 53% to 58%

DWK bought Ṁ30 NO from 59% to 53%

DWK sold Ṁ26 NO from 54% to 59%

DWK bought Ṁ25 NO from 59% to 54%

DWK bought Ṁ50 NO from 70% to 59%

Holger Bähren bought Ṁ100 YES from 57% to 70%

DWK bought Ṁ20 NO from 62% to 57%

Michael Rücker bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 62%

kottsiek bought Ṁ10 NO from 63% to 60%

MAcs 19R1 bought Ṁ10 YES from 61% to 63%

DWK bought Ṁ15 NO from 65% to 61%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 65% (cancelled)

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