Will die Linke win any seats in the next German federal election?
50
4.7k
2025
19%
chance

The next federal election in Germany will presumably take place in the fall of 2025. Will die Linke win any seats as a result, either by winning at least 5% of the proportional vote or by having any candidate win their constituency directly?

You can find a summary of current polling here, for example.

UPD. Note that, according to the new electoral legislation, winning three districts directly is not sufficient for winning any seats in parliament anymore.

See also:


Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm

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While they are polling at 4% right now I believe there will be some regression to the mean and they will get 5% or maybe 6% in the election. I think it is more like a 60% chance that they will be in parliament.

Also remember the horseshoe theory of politics. AfD is getting a lot of the vote share right now in polling but a lot of radical voters might also opt for Linke again.

worth noting that there has been a reform of German electoral systems that make history a less reliable guide: https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1636719809697132544?t=vH0MQxZ9cTMgoekcOi-aUw&s=08

predicts NO

@Drewd there might also be a split with Sarah Wagenknecht, which should bring this market down even more imo

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