🏅 Top traders

I don’t love this resolution because I hoped “highest rated” would avoid bias towards well-attended talks with famous speakers, but given the way the survey was written it seems like the best you can do.

In the end, we didn't get a formal rating system but instead asked for people's favorite sessions in the feedback form, so I'm approximating this answer by tallying the number of mentions of particular speakers and using it as a kind of approval poll. The top results:

@Aella Spicy Live Polling: 19 mentions

Nate Silver Fireside Chat: 19

@patio11 on VaccinateCA: 14

Parenting & Pronatalism panel (@rachel, @ZviMowshowitz, @ByrneHobart & Collinses): 13

Robin Hanson on "Going for Gold": 10

@EliezerYudkowsky impromptu attic session: 9

@ByrneHobart on Financial vs Prediction markets: 9

Since Aella and Nate tied, I'm resolving to 50% each! Thanks again to all of our speakers for coming to Manifest and making it such an amazing experience~

Misc notes:

• I may have miscounted by +/- 2 votes, or someone may choose to submit a late result, which could easily change the results; but I don't plan on re-resolving this market unless someone finds gross discrepancies

• Aella would probably want me to mention that we (unfairly) did the feedback form before her Descent Into Dance Hell event. @GavrielK and @MatthewBarnett's talks were also after the feedback session -- this may have reduced their mentions. I take all blame for our suboptimal scheduling orz

• Extra credit to @keriwarr, who wasn't an official speaker but whose side event "Wrestling in the park" got 8+ callouts

@Austin It looks to me like it’s resolved 52-48?

@Conflux Oops, corrected!

@ManifestConference Please resolve

shouldn't this resolve by now

I’ll bet on my favs:

• Patrick McKenzie’s story of VaccinateCA’s journey from a weekend project in a Discord server to the official Google-recommended source for Covid vaccine availability.

• Simone and Malcolm Collins’ talks about pro-natalism and education, which had some of the riskiest, most interesting ideas I heard at Manifest.

• Emmett Shear’s pitch for the future of decentralized, trusted evidence in the coming world of fake AI content.

Also, is this exclusively limited to the best among the main sessions, and then only those that featured someone on the Speakers page?

Basically, trying to confirm that side events do not qualify, but maybe James’ talk does because he’s listed as “Special guest?”

Just what is or is not in the Other box here? 😂

Is this market being resolved by the https://bit.ly/manifestsurvey survey?

If so, it did not have a Likert for each session, just “list sessions you really enjoyed.”

Does that mean it would resolve to the highest number of “session named enjoyed”? Netted against “did not enjoy?” Some sorta NPS-score biz? 😂

Caveat emptor: not all special guests will be giving talks or leading sessions; Scott Alexander may not, for example.

What a cracked lineup. Good job y'all, really looking forward to it