Manifest 2023 is Manifold's inaugural forecasting conference — more info & buy tickets here!
We'll award M500 to anyone who suggests a speaker who we end up putting on manifestconference.net/speakers, excluding those who're already on there — that means (a) we have to approve of them, and (b) they have to personally attend Manifest. If the bounty runs out, we'll add more.
Some bounty criteria details:
if you suggest a speaker who we've already reached out to or planned on reaching out to, you won't get a bounty (sorry!)
for most speakers, we'd prefer to reach out to them directly. but it's your bounty on the line! do what you think is best :)
our goal is to get the community's input on speakers. so, the above bounty criteria are subject to change in response to Goodharting!
1,000People are also trading
Josh Morrison, president and co-founder of 1Day Sooner (and previously founder of Waitlist Zero and Rikers Debate Project). (Full disclosure: I work at 1Day Sooner so lots of inside view and/or bias here.) We're working on a couple of forecasting-inspired projects, and Josh has been thinking extensively about using forecasting in market shaping and public health policy.
I'm sure you've thought of Nate Silver, but I'll put in a good word for the rest of the 538 staff (both current and alumni) as excellent data journalists who have spent a lot of time looking at political forecasts and occasionally comparing them to betting markets. They're also great at putting on a show, after all the live 538 podcasts they've done over the years. Some of the most notable folks:
Nathaniel Rakich: https://twitter.com/baseballot
Galen Druke: https://twitter.com/galendruke
Clare Malone: https://twitter.com/ClareMalone
Geoffery Skelley: https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux: https://twitter.com/ameliatd
If it's not too late, I would highly suggest David Brin! His novel Existance was my first introduction to the concept of prediction markets, and I think he would make a welcome addition to the conference.
his links:
https://www.davidbrin.com/
