The US Supreme Court is overwhelmingly expected to make a ruling against affirmative action in college admissions (see markets below). This market is about the timing of the ruling.
The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling sometime in May or June. Typically, the more controversial the case, the later the ruling is issued. You can review all the cases under consideration this cycle here.
This market will be resolved YES if the Supreme Court issues a ruling in Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina and Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College (21-707 and 20-1199) by June 22nd, 11:59pm Eastern. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
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"This market will be resolved YES if the Supreme Court issues a ruling in Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina and Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College (21-707 and 20-1199) by June 22nd, 11:59pm Eastern. Otherwise, it will resolve NO."
Re-open (probably can't) and sell your shares (probably won't).
@NicoDelon In any case, that's sketchy. Even if it should have resolved NO by close time, that's a hasty resolution.
@MaggieDelano It would have been trivially simple to check at the SCOTUSblog live opinion blog https://www.scotusblog.com
@NicoDelon It looks like I can’t reopen it. They are done now though and it is the same resolution.
I assumed there was nothing wrong with placing a large bet once I was certain of the outcome. If that is in poor spirit given I’m the market creator I won’t do it again. I’ve done it on markets that aren’t mine.
@NiallWeaver I was following it. There were two boxes and I assumed there were two opinions and confirmed with someone else who knows this but we were wrong. I should have just waited until later.
I wanted to make sure to resolve it promptly. Apologies.
@MaggieDelano Yeah I think that just means two physical boxes for the multiple copies of opinions: not necessarily one box per case
@MaggieDelano It's fine to bet it all the way down before resolving as long as the market is about public information (which this one is). The only mistake here was that you thought it was already clear when it wasn't but it happens and it's not a big deal when it's not intentional, don't worry about it :) There's always the option to ask the admins to change the resolution if it is necessary in such cases (e.g. if they did issue the ruling later today after all).
@NicoDelon can you imagine an actual financial market where the decider gets to make bets? Or a court where the judge can be a party? Heck, I work as a software engineer at a finance company, and there are a lot of restrictions on my trading. If we want manifold to be taken seriously, we have to hold ourselves to the same ethical standards as other markets. Not trading on your own markets seems like the single most obvious ethical rule.
@RiverBellamy As long as the resolution is objective, there is absolutely no issue with trading on your markets. If it is subjective, then usually people state in the description that they won't trade or explicitly say that they will, so traders can take the possibility of bias into account.
Sometimes even the whole reason to make a market is because you want to bet on something and there's no market on it, so you make it. I trade on my own markets and will continue to so, feel free to block me as well :)
@RiverBellamy Like @NamesAreHard said, when the resolution is objective and the information public, there’s no issue. My only concern here was really the timing of the resolution.
@ShadowyZephyr They will almost certainly issue an opinion on both cases at the same time, but if for whatever reason they don’t I’ll honor my description.
@MaggieDelano Yeah, I figure that it's most likely that both would come at the same time, but not guaranteed. Just pointing out that the description requires both, just in case anyone missed it.
When is the last day that the Supreme Court issues rulings? The website says "The Court recesses at the end of June" which would be June 30? https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/procedures.aspx